By 2020, China plans to create its first space station in the moon. It is necessary for the delivery of the human to the satellite of the Earth. Only in 2030 the Chinese are going to send a probe to Mars, where it is supposed to collect samples of soil of the Red Planet. In order to implement its plans, the Celestial Empire to the end of 2014 is going to launch to the Moon a Probe test to Xichang spaceport – its first orbiter returned.
Unlike the Chinese, Roskosmos plans to begin preparation for the flight to the moon. Thus, it is proposed to start the creation of super-heavy launch vehicle class to fly to the natural satellite of the Earth in 2016, and the missile system is planned to be developped in 2030.

In the first stage Roskosmos requested to allocate more than 200 billion rubles, while the total cost of the creation of rocket complex under construction of the superheavy class cosmodrome Vostochny is approaching up to $ 500 billion. The complex is planned to be created in two phases. In 2028-2030 it is expected to create a rocket that will provide an opportunity to send a crew in a new manned transport spacecraft (PTC) to the Moon without landing on the moon.

Next step of Roskosmos does not preclude the construction of a lunar base on the lunar surface, in 2030-ies. when the Americans, according to their plans. may already be on Mars. To do this, you need to send to the moon lunar runway complex takeoff weight which is roughly the same as that of the PTC – about 20-25 tons. To send them to the moon in a bundle, you need a rocket carrying capacity of 160-180 tons, experts from Roscosmos claim. Spacecraft of such a duty mankind has not yet created.

Such large-scale Russian plans cause suspicion. The main question  is the ability to implement them in the stated period. Reason for concern – low rates start work on the creation of devices, ineffective management of the sector, especially in the context of the recent reshuffle of managers, as well as the absence of long-term space exploration program strategy. Also puzzling are the contradictory and ambiguous statements of some Russian officials and leaders of the space industry on human missions to the Moon and Mars.

The Federal Space Program (FSP) in 2016-2025 has undergone very important changes because of the crisis. For example, the first manned flight of the Russian super-heavy carrier rocket from the Baikonur East moved to the moon because of this in the period from 2030 to 2035. According to an earlier version of FSP which is calculated from the budget about $ 2 trillion rubles, the creation of the “key elements and super-heavy class carrier rocket technology” was to ensure the possibility of manned flights to the moon by 2030. The new draft of the PCF with a budget of 1.4 trillion rubles of foundation for a manned flight to the Earth’s satellite will be created only after 2035.

The costs for the modernization of the Mission Control Center in Korolev near Moscow (MCC) in the current version of FSP are reduced almost twice, reports TASS. Roskosmos ready to allocate for this purpose 917 million rubles for the period from 2016 to 2025., although the previous draft provided in sum of 1.754 billion rubles. Lunar program became, if not the main, one of the most notable victims of sequestration. The initial version of software intended to manned flight to the moon as early as 2030, which meant the need to create within the PSF 2016-2025 superheavy carrier rocket class. An abbreviated version provides for the transfer of manned flight for an indefinite period – after 2035.

The well-known saying “the crisis means new opportunities” is  not always true, but in this situation it is. More than two-time devaluation of the ruble sharply added competitiveness of Russian proposals on the launch market: the cost of running tested ” Proton -M” which exceeded one hundred million dollars before the crisis, in the spring of 2015 has dropped to 69-70 million and has scoped for further reduction, which allows maintains optimism about the industry’s capacity utilization.

The national launcher program should not be reduced as well – in any case, for the military, which remains the main customer of launch services in Russia after the Roskosmos. Capacity constellation remains a priority even in the face of budget cuts.
Unlikely to undergo changes the GLONASS navigation system, which has proved its effectiveness, which can be called one of the most if not the most successful of the Russian space program in the last twenty years. Apart from its military importance (and it is difficult to overestimate), it is one of the real ways to fit into a very lucrative market for space services sector and related activities in the field of navigation.
The ruble devaluation had a positive impact on competitiveness and other Russian space projects, including the problem area spacecraft national development. The grouping of remote sensing satellites in the next ten years is expected to grow three times, including increased revenues from the provision of specialized services to commercial customers.
This has become conventional wisdom in recent years comparing the current situation with the 1990s is not quite correct, while Russia gas built in the commercial sector of space services at virtually collapse in the Soviet scientific and industrial potential. Today, there’s nowhere to fall. However, the inevitable growth no one can guarantee as well.

The US has more resources for the implementation of space programs. Today, NASA’s annual budget is $ 18 billion. It’s enough to stay afloat, but not enough for serious projects in the space field. If we compare the volumes of financing of civil space programs of Russia, China, India and the United States, then this list is leading the United States, in second place – Russia, followed by China and India. Russia leads in the number of emergency starts. It is followed by the United States, then by a wide margin – Europe, China and Japan. Plans for US space exploration are fundamentally different from Russian, in many respects similar to the Chinese. Europeans appear also cooperate on the lunar program with Russia and China, but it does not prevent them from further expand its cooperation with NASA. Most likely, the branched infrastructure of western space agencies, the high scientific level of academic research, as well as large amounts of cash injections, especially in the NASA program, will allow the Americans in time to perform the announced plans for a journey to Mars. A successful development of private companies, for example, SpaceX, introduce competition and display space exploration to self-sufficiency.

The US accounts, according to various estimates, more than half of the world’s spending on space exploration. For comparison, NASA budget for 2014 exceeds $ 17 billion, while the total budget for the RAS and the Russian Space Agency – the main production and research organizations involved in space programs in Russia – at the same time are almost three to four times less. In addition, much of the researches are carried out in the West at universities and corporations, which further increases the gap. Prospects for the Russian space program in this sense, remain vague.

This external environment risks. 1.1. Risks associated with traditional financial and business transactions. 1.2. The risk of inflation. 1.3. Risk of discrete control. 1.4. Risk connected with the reduction of the solvency of the taxpayers. 1.5. The risk of political conjuncture.
Group 2 shows the budget risks that the budgetary system generates itself. These are the risks of the budget system. 2.1. Risk rhythm of receipts and payments. 2.2. The risk of budget revenues structure. 2.3. The risk of the budget expenses structure. 2.4. The risk of an imbalance of the budget. 2.5. The risk of dependence on external sources.
Group 3 are budget risks, the occurrence of which is probabilistic in nature. They are random risks. 3.1. The risk of error. 3.2. The risk of an objective situation of unpredictability. 3.3. The risk of economic crisis. 3.4. The risk of corruption. 3.5. The risk of the development of the budget.

At the moment the Russian federal budget is in deficit. What are the sources to cover the budget deficit can be used in case of exhaustion of the resources of sovereign wealth funds?

According to the proposals of the Director of the Institute of Economics of the Academy of Sciences Ruslan Grinberg, the exhaustion of the Reserve Fund is not yet the end of the world, because it remains several options for the country through which you can neutralize the absence of provisions: 1) a tax increase; 2) reducing costs; 3) foreign debt; 4) domestic debt; 5) depreciation; 6) economic growth [2].

In the first case, the increase of the tax rate may lead to the decrease of the tax collection. In the second case, the diminishing of expenses could lead to the reduction of investments, living standards and consumer demand.

The third option is risky enough under the current external economic situation, especially in the sanctions regime, moreover, foreign loans are quite expensive.
The fourth option would mean that the money will be withdrawn from the active circulation, and will be forwarded to the ensurance of the the internal debt that will inhibit investment and economic development in general.
After the diminishment of the sovereign rating of Russia up to the “speculative” level, the market of the internal state debt will not be open for the foreign investors. The regulations of the foreign financial institutions simply do not allow them to work with the “speculative” securities.

The fifth option leads the economy to a state of shock, can cause the decrease in imports and increase of inflation. The sixth option requires structural reforms and their implementation.
The head of the stock markets and financial engineering Department of RANHiGS, the former deputy chairman of the Central Bank Konstantin Korishchenko thinks that the national debt will grow and the cost of it will decline. “Costs have already been proposed to freeze, raising taxes is extremely dangerous for political and economic reasons. Therefore we will increase the national debt, since it is very small by any standards”. [3]
This year, the planned federal budget expenditures amounted up to 16.25 trillion rubles, of which 2.2-2.3 trillion rubles will be covered from the Reserve Fund. This deficit in the first half of the year exceeded 4% of GDP, while its value forecast for this year before is 3%.
The first alarm sounded, as expected, from the Ministry of Finance, which made a radical, but inevitable proposal: the legislation must limit the budget expenditures at the level of 15.78 trillion rubles for the next three years, that means to cut them in nominal terms, adjusted for inflation at 20% [3].

After that, the Treasury presented a deficit reduction plan with diminishment of the deficit from 3,2% of GDP in 2017 to 1.2% GDP in 2019, including the limits of the transfer of the Pension fund up to 3.8% of GDP per year.
However, the Treasury made the decision about the sources of financing of the budget deficit. Thus, one trillion rubles of the Reserve Fund still remains in it in the first half of 2017, then in the second half of the year 0.8 trillion rubles will be taken from the National Welfare Fund (it is planned to take from this fund in 2018-2019 another $ 1 trillion).
If in 2016 the volume of the domestic borrowings amounted 300 billion rubles, in the following three years, the Ministry of Finance is going to borrow annually 1.3-1.5 trillion rubles, that is why the national debt by 2019 will be increased up to 13% of GDP [3].

Anyway, the government has no other choice: the revenue base is not growing, the economic growth is around zero, the reserves run out, and no one gave the mandate to the government for the reform in the conditions of the difficult socio-economic situation [3].
With regard to the federal budget of the Russian Federation, the experts of the Working Group on evaluation of fiscal risks [4] determine the following types of the budget risks: the risk of the loss of revenue, the risk of additional costs, the risk of limiting the sources of financing and the risks at the stage of the budget planning related to the planning accuracy, which leads to an underestimation or revaluation of fixed parameters of the budget.
The occurrence of these risks is capable to impact extremely negative on the federal budget and lead to the deficit that requires the use of active measures.

The risk of the loss of income is linked with [4]: 1) the price of oil on the world market; 2) the current exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble; 3) a slowdown in growth; 4) the degree of the tax collection.

The risk of additional costs is associated with: 1) the risks of support of the banking system; 2) the implementation of the implicit obligations in the non-financial sector; 3) the risks of regional budgets.

The financing of risks is associated with: 1) the volume of revenues and expenditures of the volume of the Russian sovereign wealth funds; 2) the borrowings in the foreign and domestic markets; 3) the privatization or sale of assets belonging to the state.

If the volumes of these sources are insufficient, the extreme measures, painful for the economy, are the direct emission of money the Central Bank and the default.

In order to exit this situation, the experts of the Working Group of the assessment of the fiscal risks [4] proposed three tools: 1) long-term budgetary planning; 2) the adoption and use of the modified fiscal rules; 3) improvement of the budgetary forecasting.

Also, they proposed the following types of the adaptation to the budget shocks: 1) a combination diminishment of expenses and / or increasing of the financing of the budget deficit; 2) budget borrowings.

At the same time, according to experts of the Working Group of the assessment of the fiscal risks [4], despite the fact that at the both levels is not possible to increase the borrowings, the shocks of the revenues at the federal level in the main are smoothed out, which is connected with the use of the resources of the Reserve Fund as an additional source of financing, while the procyclical expenditure policy is observed at the regional level, which is linked to the fact that such additional source of funding there does not exist.

The adaptation in the condition of the stable expenses is called “soft” adaptation, while the adaptation in the condition of the shrinking expenses is called “hard” [4]. It is necessary to agree that the problem of prevention of the fiscal risks should be of the great importance at the moment and it is needed to use all available means to solve this problem.

According to the experts of the Working Group for assessment of the fiscal risks [4], in the case of the choice of two options – the pro-cyclical fiscal policy or the accumulation of the fiscal reserves when conditions are favorable for their use in the case of the adverse conditions, the latter is more preferable.

As of November 2016, the Russian Federation passed the stage of the high world oil prices (over $ 100 per barrel) and has accumulated some funds in sovereign wealth funds, the amount of which however turned out to be insufficient to finance the budget expenditures at the stage of the decline in world oil prices and finding them at the level of around $ 40 per barrel.

Currently, the resources of the Reserve Fund of the Russian Federation melt, then it is forecasted to take resources from the National Welfare Fund, the amount of which is also at a relatively low level. Getting loans in foreign and domestic markets in the unfavorable economic conditions is connected with the great difficulties.

It is beneficial to increase their volume during the periods of favorable market conditions and to reduce their volumes in times of unfavorable external economic conditions (it allows to strengthen the counter-cyclical effect of the fiscal policy and reduce the cost of borrowings for the budget in case of internal borrowings and to the use of external markets in order to adapt to the adverse shocks and to gain from the exchange rate revaluation for external borrowing), but not vice versa.

The privatization and the sale of the state-owned assets can only be a temporary measure to cover the short-term cash gaps that can not be used to cover the long-term structural deficits.

One of the methods of reducing the financing risk is the method of diversifying its sources. In our opinion, it is better not spend all the resources of the souvereign wealth funds of Russia to their complete exhaustion. It is necessary to look for the new ways for the better investing of the sovereign wealth funds.

It is also needed to use the version of the budget cuts, and. if possible, to avoid the reduction of that types of costs that may further increase the scale of the economic downturn, as well as the priority of public investment, as well as to consider the option of raising funds from the other funds.

Table 1. The number of enterprises in Russian Federation on 01.08.2016

Source: Resource center of small business, http://rcsme.ru/ru/statistics

Table 2. Criteria for determination of the type of the enterprise

Source: Resource center of small business, http://rcsme.ru/ru/statistics

As of January 1, 2015, according to Rosstat, in the Russian Federation were registered and operated 4.5 million small and medium-sized businesses, which employed more than 18 million people, accounting for 25% of total employment in the economy (Table 3).

The basis of the small and medium enterprises sector are individual entrepreneurs – 2.4 million or 53.3% of all small and medium enterprises and microenterprises – 1.9 million or 41% of all small and medium enterprises. Small businesses account for 5.2% of the total, while the average is 0.3% of the total number of small and medium enterprises. At the same time the micro enterprises and individual entrepreneurs sector employs more than half of all people employed in the SME sector – 55%.

Table 3. Activity of enterprises and individual entrepreneurs, 01.01.2015

Source: Resource center of small business, http://rcsme.ru/ru/statistics
The future of the Russian economy is largely dependent on the development of SMEs. The development of the state support of this segment becomes a priority, taking into account the difficult situation in the economy. It creates new SME support institutions [2]. According to the Strategy of development of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Russian Federation for the period till 2030 year [3], in 2015 was established the State Institute for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in the form of the Joint Stock Company “Federal Corporation for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises”.
At the same time the contribution of small and medium enterprises in general economic indicators in the Russian Federation are significantly lower than in most not only developed but also developing countries. Small and medium enterprises in the Russian Federation are primarily micro  enterprises (95.5 percent of the total number of subjects Small and Medium Enterprises). The number of medium-sized enterprises is relatively small [3].
Small and medium enterprises account for only 5-6 percent of the total assets and 6-7 percent of the total investment in the fixed assets in the whole country. Labour productivity in small and medium sized enterprises in the Russian Federation, according to the Ministry of Economic development of Russia is much lower than the level of developed countries (USA, Japan, European Union countries) in 2-3 times. In recent years, the dynamics of the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is negative. The share of small and medium-sized enterprises turnover in the economy as a whole, according to Federal State Statistics Service, progressively
decreases. The diminishment of all indicators of small and medium-sized enterprises  only in 2014 compared to 2013 was 1.8 percent from 34.2 percent in 2013 to 32.4 percent in 2014 [3].

Specific measures undertaken by the state policy in social and economic spheres did not fully ensure the interests of small and medium-sized enterprises. Such measures as cancellation of tax privileges for the business property of the payers of the special tax regimes, the introduction of the trade tax and a number of other measures did not bring the planned improvements.
One of the priority directions of the state policy in the small and medium-sized enterprises sector at the present stage is the application and development to a new level of the measures and support tools for the small and medium-sized enterprises, which will be implemented within the framework of the Joint Stock Company “Federal Corporation for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises” ‘s activities. In particular, the Corporation will be provided the decision of the following tasks: providing financial, infrastructural, legal, methodological and other support to small and medium-sized enterprises; attracting Russian and foreign funds
and international organizations in support of small and medium-sized enterprises; organization of system of information, marketing, financial and legal support of investment projects, implemented by small and medium-sized enterprises; organization of activities aimed to increase the share of procurement of goods, works and services of certain kinds of legal entities in small and medium-sized enterprises;
provision of in conjunction with specific customers, determined by the Government of the Russian Federation, and bodies of the state power of the subjects of the Russian Federation toward the measures to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises; maintenance of interaction with public authorities of the Russian Federation, local authorities, other bodies and organizations in order to support small and medium-sized enterprises; providing improved support for small and medium-entrepreneurship. At the same time the Corporation will perform as a system integrator of the support measures for small and medium-sized enterprises.