In an interview with “Vedomosti” CEO JSC “KAMAZ” said about the situation in the production of Russian freight cars as follows: “The last 2.5 years we have struggled to optimize costs, but the economic effect is not obtained. Steelmakers and tire manufacturers raised their prices and have ensured that yields have remained. But this is not the only reason. Blame and violation of macroeconomic indicators of the country. We fell asleep in a business climate, woke up at a friend and did not know what to do “[1, p.1].
As can be seen from the above interviews, Russian automobile enterprises have a negative impact primarily on steel prices, which range from 70 to 80% by weight of the car.
At the same time in the past there has been a sharp rise in steel prices – with 2000-2012g prices rose more than 3 times.
Given the significant share of steel in the weight of the car, steel price growth leads to an adequate increase in the cost of automotive products. At the same time increasing competition among vehicle manufacturers and the growth of production volumes in the first place in China makes it impossible for the proper growth of the cost of compensation for the growth of prices for the products [2, p.35].
It should be noted that the financial results of enterprises automotive affect not only the increase in steel prices, and fluctuations in the value of foreign exchange resources. The effect increases with the proportion of imported components in the cost of the car. So the novelty of the domestic automobile industry – Lada Granta – by 15-20% consists of imported components, but in terms of value accounts for 30-35% of the cost of the car. It is obvious that as the Russian automakers integration into the global industry is the effect of changes in exchange rates towards the weakening of the national currency will increase [3, p.118].
It should be noted that the weakening of the national currency and an increase in foreign exchange rates occurs in times of crisis for the Russian economy periods, which are usually accompanied by a drop in car sales, decrease in the volume of consumer credit and other negative consequences. Compensation automaker’s losses at this time due to the price increase is not possible, as the market at this time “lying on its side” and any even slight increase in the prices of products will cause an even greater drop in sales.
At the same time, manufacturers are faced with the reverse effects of currency fluctuations related to the strengthening of the national currency. This occurs when the car export. For example, according to the results of 2010 sold 43 of “AVTOVAZ” 839 pcs. vehicles of its own production for export, which represents 8% of the total sales volume of “AVTOVAZ”. The geography of deliveries of vehicles “AVTOVAZ” the export covers almost all regions of the world – from Europe to the CIS countries and Latin America. The increase in the value of the national currency leads to lower yields concluded export contracts and losses of PJSC “AVTOVAZ” [4, p.125].
The dynamics of the dollar against the ruble is characterized by considerable volatility, and in the direction of growth, as well as the downside. From June 2008 to August 2009 the US dollar. Has grown for 199 days at 56.8%, and then decreased by 16% over 119 days.
In addition to the rise in prices for steel and changes in exchange rates, the negative impact of the financial and economic activities of enterprises automobile exerts a positive change in interest rates.
As is the case with the increase in foreign exchange rate rising interest rates starts in the most “wrong” moment – while progressing the economic crisis.
Usually by this time accumulated remains of unsold goods at the warehouses of dealers, suppliers of raw materials and components are beginning to experience a shortage of working capital, reduce the supply of products under the terms of payment by installments, requiring prepayment [5, p.194].
At these moments, the debt burden on the automotive companies, which are a kind of center of the credit application of the load of the entire business process, critically increases and growth in interest for the loan servicing existing debt makes software for enterprise critical activity. This can lead to the destabilization of the financial condition of the company, its liquidity and the fall of the bankruptcy of the enterprise. A striking example – the crisis of 2008-2009, the consequences of which were financial problems of the Russian AvtoVAZ is important to note that the automotive industry has faced in 2008-2009 with the biggest crisis in the history of the industry, which is one of the reasons. High debt burden of companies and the impossibility of its services due to a sharp increase in the cost of financing. The debt crisis has been overcome automakers due to government support. . For example, for the salvation of AvtoVAZ to 70 billion rubles has been spent by the Government of Russia, with most of these funds -. 54 billion rubles has been spent on repayment of current debt in the form of a loan, issued bonds and notes.
In general, the automotive companies in their business activities there are many risks – from the risk of compliance with contractual relationships in the supply of components and raw materials to the risks associated with changes in the legal system and force majeure. The effects of most of these risks are minimized by means of a system of selection of contractors, contracts with insurance companies, the use of legal support and so forth [6, p.150].
Because of the risk is necessary to allocate the risks associated with the rising cost of raw materials, changes in exchange rates and interest rates, for the following reasons.
Firstly, these risks there is an effective system of reducing losses by hedging these risks in the financial and commodity markets at the expense of transactions with derivative financial instruments.
Secondly, the risks are periodic, cyclical nature, which explains the periodic multidirectional changes in asset prices in financial and commodity markets.
Third, hedge these risks without the use of OTC and listed derivative financial instruments is almost impossible.
Thus, under the hedging understand insurance, reducing the risk of losses caused by unfavorable to sellers or buyers changes in market prices of goods in comparison with those that were taken into account when concluding the contract.
With regard to the financial markets for hedging realize reduction in the risk of losses due to sellers (lender) or customers (borrowers) changes in market prices for commodities, currencies or interest rates through the sale (purchase) of financial derivatives.
Currently, the level of development of financial derivatives trading markets in the face of considerable volatility of commodity, currency and credit markets makes it all the more attractive hedging various industries, including enterprises for the production of vehicles [7, p.8].
What tools exist to hedge the risks cost of the increased cost of raw materials and components, changes in value of the currency and rising interest rates on loans of car manufacturers?
The solution hedging risks arising from fluctuations in the price of corn in the US, began to forward contracts for the supply of maize, the first of which was concluded in March 1851 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. At the same time under a forward contract to understand the transaction between the seller and the buyer, which is a condition for the delivery of an asset, the agreed quality at a future date.
Currently, using forward contracts are traded metals, energy, interest rates and currency, which makes it possible to use this tool to hedge all risks, hedging where possible on the financial and commodity markets. However, forward contracts are characterized by certain disadvantages and problems that limit their use, which are shown in Table 1.
As a result, work on solving the problems and disadvantages inherent in forward contracts in 1885 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in circulation were introduced futures contracts, which are currently traded in almost all regions of the world and which are based on the prices of commodity resources, currency and interest rates . At the same time a futures contract to understand the right and obligation to buy or sell a particular asset within the specified period in the future, at a price determined at the time of conclusion of the contract [8, p.73].
The impetus to the mass use of futures contracts, which are based on currency, interest rates and indices steel crisis in the global economy of the early 70-ies of XX century. During this period, large companies and national governments are faced with rapidly changing interest rates and exchange rates. It should be noted that the current situation in the world economy as a whole resembles the crisis of the 70′s, underscoring the relevance of the use of futures contracts in the economic activity of vehicle manufacturers.
Despite the large number of advantages, futures contracts, as well as a forward, it has a significant drawback – a potentially unlimited loss on the transaction, if the hedger effect negligence or inexperience took disadvantageous position. Of course, the use of the asset in its business activity reduces risk, but for the hedger, as well, and to other market participants, it is desirable to limit the maximum size of the loss.
The solution to this problem was the use in stock trading, along with futures contracts – options that allow you to limit the size of the maximum loss is the premium paid by the seller. Option as a whole is similar to a futures contract, except that the option buyer has no obligation, and has the right to make a deal on favorable terms for him. At the same time the seller of an option contract shall bear the risk of unlimited loss on the transaction in the case of an awkward position. The most widely used as a hedging instrument, options received in 1973 after the creation of the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s goal, which was launched trading in options on financial instruments.
Another common tool for hedging are swaps, which represent the parties’ agreement on the exchange of, any assets or liabilities for similar assets or liabilities in order to obtain a prize, which was not available to them before the conclusion of the transaction. Swaps unlike futures and options, which can be traded in the framework of the exchange and in the OTC trades are closed only through negotiations outside the stock exchange. Currently swaps traded in the financial, commodity and currency markets and serve as an effective hedging instruments.
How to avoid a negative situation, coupled with the involvement of foreign currency loans, under conditions of high volatility in exchange rates?
To minimize additional costs on the loan payment in foreign currency automaker may use derivatives exchange market. In this case, the automaker could buy a derivative, or a combination of several financial instruments with US dollars Delivery condition at the time of payment of the interest payments on the loan and the date of payment of the main debt. Thus, the automaker risks associated with a possible increase in the US dollar exchange rate would be kept to a minimum. The choice of a particular instrument hedging currency risk will depend on the specific hedging system manufacturer. In the presence of an effective hedging system may use futures contracts, in the absence of such a system is the most effective and safe in terms of the risks associated with the acquisition of derivative securities will purchase option or the conclusion of the OTC swap transaction.
Consider the example of currency risk hedging for attraction of foreign currency loans through the purchase of an option on the US Dollar on the MICEX. Suppose that the right to buy the US dollar at the time of payment of principal on the loan for 12.01.09 will cost 1.18 rubles. per US dollar (using the maximum value of the costs, as the company will be forced to buy several option contracts for a period of execution in three months for the duration of the credit agreement). Thus, the company will spend on hedging of currency risk 1 180 000 rubles. which is significantly less losses from exchange rate fluctuations in the amount of 6 104 600 rub., While the effective interest rate equivalent to the same ruble loans amount to 12.32%.
For the automotive industry, exporting products to other countries, is characterized by loss associated with the reverse situation – the growth rate of the ruble against the US dollar. For example, the automaker has put cars and spear parts in Egypt worth a total of 5 000 000. Payments under the contract will be made in US dollars. By reducing the US dollar, for example by 10%, there will be a decrease in revenue of the enterprise by the same amount, ie, the company actually incurred a loss on the transaction in the amount of 500 000 of this contract.
Thus, automakers are usually faced with two varieties of currency risk – the risk of depreciation and appreciation of the national currency. Thus one currency position may prevail over the other, and in some cases foreign exchange position of the company can compensate for each other. For example, received a loan of 1 000 US $. And concluded an export contract for the supply of vehicles for the same amount and with the same expiration date of creating neutral currency position, ie, the company will be insensitive to changes in the value of the US dollar and the national currency. Therefore, it is advisable for automakers to determine the total foreign exchange position – Net position on all contracts concluded on the specific dates and receive depending on the net position of the relevant decision to hedge risks.
Is it possible to hedge the risks increase in the cost of raw materials and the cost of financing for Russian producers?
Hedging increase in the cost of raw materials and components may also be carried out with the help of derivatives. However, in contrast to hedge currency risk, hedging cost of raw materials on the Russian stock exchanges for car manufacturers rather difficult due to the lack of trade with the necessary financial instruments, such as contracts for aluminum and steel, as well as the low liquidity of the markets.
More promising is hedging on foreign stock exchanges, has high liquidity, as well as the possibility of buying a futures contract or an option, “tied” to the value of the value of commodity resources in one of the stock exchanges.
By using derivative financial instruments that are traded on international exchanges, the automaker can hedge the risks increase in the cost of raw materials through the purchase of derivative financial instruments is similar to the example above with the hedging of currency risks.
Given a certain complexity in the organization of the rising cost of raw materials hedging process through the purchase and sale of derivative financial instruments in international financial markets, initially to Russian automakers can recommend the execution of OTC contracts with Russian banks, which offer effective schemes of commodity risk hedging.
For this purpose between the Bank and the automaker must be enclosed model contract the ISDA , which determines the rights and obligations of the parties in the process of risk hedging client positions. A significant advantage of this option is the absence of actual hedging transactions on the part of the customer market, ie Bank carries out the purchase or sale of stock exchange tools on its own behalf on behalf of a client.
Three options hedging changes in raw material costs are usually offered by banks:
- Price fixing (swap);
- Ensuring maximum price (optional);
- Limiting the potential price fluctuations (Collar).
Consider the example of the growth of the cost of raw materials hedging Russian automakers as an example of aluminum – a metal that is gaining share in vehicles produced worldwide are gradually displacing traditional steel.
Russian automakers pay for the supplied aluminum suppliers in accordance with average monthly aluminum quotation on the stock exchange the LME .
Aluminum price is characterized by high volatility, the standard deviation for the period amounted to US $ 421.7., The maximum price for the period was 3 to $ 291. Per ton.
At the time of formation of the schedule 28.05.2012 aluminum price LME is below the weighted average price of 2 US $ 019.5. Per ton. Suppose that in the budget of the enterprise founded, the average price for the period, ie, 2 220.4 US dollars. Per ton. The current situation is positive for the company, since the budget for this article forms a savings of $ 200.9 USD. Per ton of aluminum consumed automaker. However, if the price will increase, for example, the value and the standard deviation is 2 to $ 441.2., The budget for this paper would be deficient in the particular case of US $ 220.8. Consumed with each ton of aluminum. This will cause a corresponding increase in production costs and is likely to lead to a reduction in profits or losses of the enterprise as compensation for losses by increasing the prices of cars sold will be hardly possible in the face of fierce competition in the production of cars.
To avoid this, the company can hedge the risks by the acquisition of the OTC contract the ISDA . Consider the economic impact of various hedging options.
The first option hedging is to fix prices, ie, conclude swap transactions ( the SWAP ). The purpose of this deal to fix the price of the purchased product at a certain level for a specified period. If the market price of aluminum for a specified period is lower than the fixed price, the buyer of the swap pays the seller the difference between the fixed rate swap and the market price.
Another hedging option – the purchase of a call option ( call ), ie fixing the maximum price level. By purchasing an option, the customer gets the right but not the obligation to make a purchase the asset at a specified date at a predetermined price (strike price). If formed price on the expiry date of the option the market price is more favorable level of the strike, the client refuses to strike a deal and implement the market price. Purchase client option involves the payment of the option premium. In contrast to the swap agreement, the option buyer not only protects against adverse price changes, but also allows you to “participate” in a positive development of the market for the customer.
The third proposed Russian banks hedging option is to purchase a call option ( call ) and sale of a put option (put). This achieves fixing the market price of the purchased product in a particular hallway guaranteed for a specified period. At the time of the transaction the customer pays the bank a one-time insurance premium. Maybe pick up border corridor so that the insurance premium will be zero. The combination of put and call with a minimum premium achieves almost ideal for enterprise hedging options. So, if the market price is higher than the fixed price (or rather the boundaries of the corridor), the bank will pay the difference between the fixed and the market price. If the market price for a specified period will be within the boundaries of the corridor, then the option will be reset without any obligation to pay additional bonuses and commissions. If the price fall below the boundary of the corridor, the company will incur unlimited losses.
How to hedge the risk of rising interest rates on loans attracted by Russian producers?
Нedging risks of rising interest rates on loans attracted by Russian producers can be hedged using exchange-traded and OTC derivatives, have a similar risk of changes in value of currency and raw material resources.
It should be noted the importance of hedging interest rate for automotive companies, as most of them borrow money on a short term basis for working capital and long-term financing for the upgrading and modernization programs. Therefore, interest rates rise more than planned in the budget may significantly worsen the financial position of the car companies and the cause, including curtailing of investment programs.
Does the use of hedging risks for the automotive car industry?
Operations related to trading derivatives, has always belonged to the high-risk operations. There are many unfortunate examples of operations with derivative financial instruments, which led to significant losses and even bankruptcy of economic entities engaged in transactions with derivatives. The most famous example is the well-known British bank bankruptcy of Barings , as the result of illegal operations with derivative financial instruments of one of the bank’s traders, as well as major losses Summito Corporation, as a result of improper futures trading strategies “copper” contracts on the LME . Therefore, automotive companies forming hedging changes in the value of assets system, should at the same time provide for a system to prevent and limit losses as the result of forward transactions. The construction of this system should be implemented in conjunction with general hedging system changes in the value of assets used in the course of economic activities of Russian automakers.
How to build a hedging system for a particular company?
Formation of the hedging system at a particular auto companies should take into account the scale of its operations and the existing enterprise management structure. For a number of companies would be appropriate to create a specialized service for hedging risks, passing almost all the features of the choice of hedging instruments and the purchase of derivative securities to the analysis of the enterprise business cycles and industry cycles and changes in the value of assets and make the appropriate correspondent enterprise budget. For others, such as PJSC “AVTOVAZ” will be appropriate to use an existing and functional structure with the creation of additional units groups.
What conclusions can be drawn from the material presented?
At present, the domestic automobile industry is at a critical area of development, Russia’s accession to the WTO, greater competition makes paramount the prompt work on optimization of all cost elements not only by trivial reductions in all respects but also by seeking a painless method for the production and consumers reduce them. One option is to hedge the risks cost of raw materials and the growth of finance, as well as changes in exchange rates. Creating a hedging system at domestic enterprises automotive industry – is one of the most effective ways to optimize costs without compromising consumer properties of products.
Авторы благодарны Российскому гуманитарному научному фонду за частичную финансовую поддержку данной работы (Региональный конкурс «Волжские земли в истории и культуре России», грант № 16-12- 63003).
- «Камазу» мешают ВТО, экология, энергетика и транспорт Татарстана // Официальный сайт газеты Ведомости: [сайт]. URL: http://www.vedomosti.ru/auto/news/1500039/kamazu_meshayut_vto_ekologiya_energetika_i_transport#ixzz1nHOXZTbwhttp://www.vedomosti.ru/auto/news/1500039/kamazu_meshayut_vto_ekologiya_energetika_i_transport (дата обращения: 23.11.2016).
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